Tristan Kenderdine

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Bio

Working in the spaces between political economy, political geography and comparative politics, Tristan’s research focuses on historical institutional interrelationality between public finance and industrial development in national economic systems in East Asia and Eurasia. Focused on China’s public administration and public finance institutions, his work covers China’s geoindustrial policy and impact on external geographies in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Tristan has published opeds in Financial Times, Nikkei Asian Review, South China Morning Post and Straits Times, been quoted by Reuters, Wall Street Journal, and The Atlantic, and published in academic journals such as Global Policy, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Journal of Chinese Political Science, and Central Asian Affairs. His work has been translated into Russian, Kazakh, Chinese, Spanish, Azeri and Viet Namese.

He has worked extensively in corporate and government research, covering trade, industry, energy and agriculture policy, as well as aluminium, steel, grain and oilseeds markets. Tristan has worked with major governments and corporate clients in Europe, North America, Russia, Australia and Singapore, mostly focused on resources, hydrocarbons, and agroindustrials. He has lived and worked in China, Thailand, Korea Republic, Taiwan and Kazakhstan for over ten years, speaking and reading Chinese, Thai and German.

Commissioned research and policy papers

• Policy Submission to Australia Foreign Policy White Paper, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, February 2017
• Palm Oil Intelligence Visualisation Project, commissioned by Palm Oil Analytics, Singapore, February 2017
• Essential Palm Oil Statistics 2017 commissioned by Palm Oil Analytics, Singapore, December 2016
• Advance EU Access to Financial Incentives for Innovation in China, commissioned by the European Commission, Brussels, July 2016 (Junior Expert)
• EU-China Legal and Regulatory Reform Agenda, commissioned by the European Commission, Brussels, 2016 (EU-CLERA Manager)
• China Restructures Agricultural Support, commissioned by the European Commission, Brussels, July 2016 (coauthor)
• China and CCAMLR— Building a Science Power, commissioned by Pew Charitable Trusts, Washington DC, May 2016 (coauthor)
• Policy Process and Policy Risk in China, confidential report commissioned by BHP Billiton, Singapore, April 2016
• China-Oman Trade and Investment Relations: Development Opportunities, commissioned by Oxford Analytica, February 2016
• China Fourth Quarter 2015 Agricultural Policy Update, commissioned by Canola Council of Canada, Winnipeg, January 2016
• China’s Blue Strategy for Global Oceans, commissioned by Pew Charitable Trusts, Washington DC, November 2015 (coauthor)
• China Third Quarter 2015 Agricultural Policy Update, commissioned by Canola Council of Canada, Winnipeg, October 2015 (coauthor)
• China Plans its Future in the Antarctic, commissioned by Antarctic Ocean Alliance for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, Washington DC, July 2015 (coauthor)
• China Second Quarter 2015 Agricultural Policy Update, commissioned by Canola Council of Canada, Winnipeg, June 2015 (coauthor)
• China: Commodities, Energy, Environment, confidential report commissioned by UC Rusal, Moscow, March 2015 (coauthor)
• Rising Demand, Growing Challenges—The Regulatory Environment for Canola in China, Commissioned by Canola Council of Canada, Winnipeg, December 2014 (coauthor)
• China’s 2014 Reform Agenda—Implications for Quality Infrastructure in the Machinery and Equipment Sector, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GIZ for submission to the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy BMWi, August 2014
• Horse Racing in China—A Mirage in the Distance, commissioned by Europe China Research and Advice Network, Brussels, August 2014
• Public Procurement in China—Development and Directions for Greater Market Access, commissioned by Europe China Research and Advice Network, Brussels, June 2014
• Rice Imports to China—Market Entry Strategies for Basmati, commissioned by Amira Nature Foods, Dubai, May 2014

 Journals

• Bucsky, Péter & Kenderdine, Tristan, Central Asia Rail Development: Why China’s Belt and Road Initiative Lacks Regional Importance, Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 39. No. 1, 2021
• Bucsky, Péter & Kenderdine, Tristan Is the Iron Silk Road Really so Important?—Rail Freight Use on China’s New Silk Road Economic Belt MGIMO Review of International Relations, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan Eurasianism and Post-Soviet Political Geography, MGIMO Review of International Relations, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2020
• Wang, Songtao, Li, Bin, Kenderdine, Tristan Towards a Utilitarian Social Welfare Function—Income Inequality and National Welfare Growth in China, Research in World Economy, Vol. 10, No. 3. 2019

Kenderdine, Tristan and Lan Peiyuan, China’s Middle East Investment Policy, Eurasian Geography and Economics, November, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan, China’s Inland Civil Nuclear Strategy: Making the Case at Home First, Global Asia, Vol. 10, No. 4, December 2018

• Kenderdine, Tristan Kazakh Land, China Capital—Exporting China’s Project System to External Geographies, Central Asian Affairs, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan Death of the East Asian Goose and the Rise of China’s Geoindustrial Policy, Journal of Chinese Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 3, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan Insurance plus Futures—Agricultural Commodity Price Reform in China, Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Vol 5. No. 2, May 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan and Ling Han, International Capacity Cooperation—Financing China’s Export of Industrial Overcapacity, Global Policy, Vol. 9, No. 1, February 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan Cadre Calculus—Making Sense of the 19th Party Congress and Beyond, Global Asia, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 2017
• Wang Songtao, Kenderdine, Tristan and Qi Zhen Working for Less: Income Inequality and the Diminishing Share of Labor in China’s National Wealth, Asian Social Science, Vol. 13, No. 6, June 2017
• Wang Songtao, Kenderdine, Tristan and Chi Qishui, Factor Misallocation and Declining Labor Income Share in China, Journal of Economics and Public Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2, May 2017
• Kenderdine, Tristan China’s Industrial Policy, Strategic Emerging Industries, and Space Law, Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Vol. 4, No. 2, May 2017

Book reviews

• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Myth and Reality in Kazakh Ideology, Global Asia, Vol. 15, No. 4, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: BRI and International Cooperation in Industrial Capacity – Industrial Layout Study, by Xu Shaoshi (Ed.), China Quarterly, Vol. 244, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: BRI and International Cooperation in Industrial Capacity – Industrial Layout Study, by Xu Shaoshi (Ed.), Global Policy, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: China’s Real ‘One Country, Two Systems’, Global Asia, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Cross Strait Relations Since 2016 by J. Michael Cole, Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Chinese Maritime Power in the 21st Century: Strategic Planning, Policy and Predictions by Hu Bo, Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China By Ariane Tabatabai & Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Journal, Vol. 74, No.1, Spring 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Baseline of Russian Arctic Laws, by Paul Berkman et al., Polar Record, Vol. 55, No. 6, 2020
• Kenderdine, Tristan & Aidarkhan, Aidana [Review Essay]: Lev Gumilev’s Eurasianism and Ethnonationalist Misappropriation of Historical Geography Central Asian Survey, Vol. 39, No. 2, 2020

• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: China’s Economic Reform Reboot, Global Asia, Vol. 14, No. 4, December 2019
Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Russian Cosmism, Utopian Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2019
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Journalistic Takes On a Toxic Culture, Global Asia, Vol 14, No. 3, September 2019
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Review Essay]: Geoeconomics of Natural Gas in Eurasia, Geopolitics, Vol. 24, No. 2, 2019
Kenderdine, Tristan [Review Essay]: Russian Foreign Policy in the Middle East, The Middle East Journal, Vol. 73, No.1, Spring 2019
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: China’s Arctic Ambitions and What They Mean for Canada, Polar Record, Vol. 55, No. 1, January 2019
Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: China’s Political Economy Under the Microscope, Global Asia, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: The Central Asia-Afghanistan Relationship: from Soviet Intervention to Silk Road Initiative, by Marlene Laruelle (ed.), Central Asian Survey Vol. 37, No. 4, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: Carl Schmitt and Leo Strauss in the Chinese-Speaking World: Reorienting the Political, by Kai Marchal & Carl K. Y. Shaw (eds.) Journal of Chinese Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 3, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: China’s Eurasian Century? Political and Strategic Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative, by Nadège Rolland, China Quarterly, Vol. 234, 2018
• Kenderdine, Tristan [Book Review]: The Political Economy of the Agri-Food System in Thailand: Hegemony, Counter-Hegemony, and Co-Optation of Oppositions, by Prapimphan Chiengkul, Asian Politics and Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2, April 2018

Op eds

Kazakhstan-China Border Delays as Rail Freight Hedge Wobbles (with Péter Bucsky) Diplomat, January 2021
Is Institutionalism Still Useful in Elite China Political Analyses?, Diplomat, January 2021
Politburo 2022 Candidate Analysis: Li Xi, Diplomat, December 2020
China Looks Ahead to 20th Party Congress in 2022, Diplomat, December 2020
China’s Policy Banks Are Lending Differently, Not Less (with Niva Yau) Diplomat, December 2020
China Looks Ahead to 20th Party Congress in 2022, Diplomat, December 2020
Middle Corridor Struggles to Find Its Way Across Eurasia, Diplomat, December 2020
China’s Technoindustrial Policy Is More Soviet Retro Than Japan Innovation, Diplomat, December 2020
Reiterative Policy Divergence—Explaining the Processes of Political Change, Global Policy, November 2020
ASEAN will not Integrate According to European Model, Eurasia Expert, November 2020
Rail Freight Use on China’s Iron Silk Road Underdelivers, Diplomat, November 2020
China’s Fifth Plenum: Old Goals and Shifting Priorities, Diplomat, October 2020
China’s Demand Impact on Eurasia Gas Pricing, ENERPO Journal, Vol. 8. No. 1. 2020
China Missteps With Wild Allegation of a ‘New’ Deadly Pneumonia in Kazakhstan, Diplomat, July 2020
China’s ‘Erhardian Bargain’, East Asia Forum, May 2020
China’s Petrochemical Enterprise Alliance and Iran Oil Trade, Middle East Institute, May 2020
The Ferghana Valley Railway Should Never Be Built (with Péter Bucsky) Middle East Institute, March 2020
Rural China’s Impossible Policy Trinity, East Asia Forum, March 2020
• Coronavirus will Reduce China Investment in ‘Belt and Road’  (in Russian) Eurasia Expert, March 2020, reprinted by Mir Peremen at the Russian Academy of Sciences
China’s Trade Policy Shift as International Capacity Cooperation Policy Rebranded, Russian International Affairs Council, February 2020
China Running Low on Ideas in Rural Policy, Policy Forum, February 2020
• US–Iran Conflict Would Strengthen China’s Position in the Middle East, Russian International Affairs Council, June 2019
• Global Ambitions Fuel China’s Nuclear Power Strategy East Asia Forum, February 2019
• Kazakhstan as an Arctic State and a Maritime Power, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, January 2019
• Red-state Tax Reform and Xi’s Fiscal Reaganomics, East Asia Forum, November 2018
• Spilt Milk: Protecting Exports During Drought, Lowy Institute for International Policy, September 2018
• Towards a Central Asia and Caucasus Trade Bloc for Belt and Road, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, October 2018
• Afghanistan-Iran Trade Corridors to Bear Fruit for both India and China, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, July 2018
• Towards a Post-reform China—more Power to the Party (in Spanish), CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, International Yearbook, July 2018
• Rise of China’s Export Credit Policy Insurance in Eurasia, Russian International Affairs Council, July 2018
• China’s Agriculture Trade Policy Full of Beans, East Asia Forum, June 2018
• China Set to Tackle Overseas Investment Risk, Financial Times, June 2018
• Central Asia Benefits from US-China Tensions (in Russian) Eurasia Expert, June 2018, reprinted by Mir Peremen at the Russian Academy of Sciences
• Debt-trap or Dumping Factories? China’s Geoindustrial Policy in External Geographies, Global Policy, June 2018
As it Dumps Entire Steel Factories, China Stays One Step ahead of US, The Hill, June 2018
One Country, One Province: China’s External Industrial Policy in the Middle East, Middle East Institute, June 2018
China’s Agricultural Paradigm Shift, Policy Forum, May 2018
Russia Sanctions Push Kazakhstan Closer to China, Global Policy, April 2018
China’s Policy Bank Investment Profits from Uzbekistan’s Monetary Policy Reform, Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, April 2018
Consolidating China’s Party-State, Policy Forum, March 2018
Caucasus Trans-Caspian Trade Route to Open China Import Markets, East Asia Forum, February 2018
China’s Rural Revitalisation Strategy Underwhelms, Policy Forum, February 2018
ASEAN Lacks Common Trade Policy on China’s International Capacity Cooperation Strategy, Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia, February 2018
Calm the Alarm on Antarctic Krill Fishery, Lowy Institute for International Policy, January 2018
China’s River-Based Inland Civil Nuclear Policy to Lead Developing Economy Energy Strategies, Global Policy, November 2017
The Next Phase of China’s Trade and Industry Strategy, East Asia Forum, November 2017
Arctic Link Reveals the Full Scope of China’s Belt and Road Ambitions, South China Morning Post, October 2017
China’s Aluminium Industrial Capacity Cooperation in Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, October 2017
13th Five-year Plan on International Capacity Cooperation—China Exports the Project System, Global Policy, October 2017
What to Watch at China’s Party Congress, ChinaFile, October 2017
Ahead of Party Congress, Keep an Eye on China’s Leading Groups, The Diplomat, October 2017
How can China Afford its Science and Technology Goals? East Asia Forum, October 2017
Caspian Sea is China’s Best Bet for Belt and Road, Nikkei Asian Review, September 2017
Why is China Building its Own Domestic Credit Ratings Architecture?, The Diplomat, September 2017
China Eyes Iran as Important Belt and Road Hub, Eurasianet, September 2017
China is Exporting Risk to the Asia-Pacific, East Asia Forum, August 2017
China’s Geoeconomic Strategy and Industrial Transfer in the Middle East, Global Policy, August 2017
The PRC’s International Capacity Cooperation Exports both Industrial Capacity and Financial Risk, Asian Development Bank Institute, Asia Pathways, July 2017
A Closer Look at China’s Import-processing Zones, Policy Forum, July 2017
How China’s Poorest Province Became a Political Kingmaker, The Diplomat, July 2017
Coordinating China’s Satellite Constellations—A New Era in the Space Race Begins, Policy Forum, July 2017
Mongolia Gets On Board with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Eurasianet, July 2017
The Real (Thucydides) Trap is Simplistic Thinking, Straits Times, June 2017
China’s Industrial Capacity Policy is a One-way Street, South China Morning Post, June 2017
A Forum and a Feint—Belt and Road or China’s One-way Trade Street?, Policy Forum, May 2017
Fish Futures—Prospects for Seafood Futures Contracts on China’s Commodity Exchanges, Nikkei Asian Review, May 2017
China’s Agroindustrial Capacity Cooperation in Central Asia, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, April 2017
Central Asia: Challenges Ahead for China’s Belt and Road Project, Eurasianet, April 2017
Australia in the Pacific Century, Policy Forum, April 2017
Prioritising Trading Blocs over Nation States, Lowy Institute for International Policy, March 2017
Australia Risks Isolation from Regional Trade, Australian Institute of International Affairs, February 2017
Risky Business: The Price of Thai Rice, Australian Institute of International Affairs, January 2017
Fewer Boxes on More Boats—The Global Shipping Trade Slump and Death of the Asian Goose, Policy Forum, January 2017
China Returns to ‘Bird in the Cage Economics Policy, East Asia Forum, January 2017
Putting the Pacific on China’s Radar, Asia Pacific Bulletin, East West Center, January 2017
China’s Multilevel Governance Problem—Policies Lost in Transmission in Central Asia, Policy Forum, November 2016
Seeding Risk in Chinese Agricultural Insurance, East Asia Forum, October 2016
E-comm Tax Rules are not so Bad, China Policy (with Yanni Chen) April 2016
2016 Central Document No. 1: Speeding Integration up, China Policy (with Erlend Ek) January 2016
China: from Superclusters to Supercarriers–China’s Local Industrial Policies Reveal National Strategies, The Diplomat, June 2015
Why China is Abandoning State Soy Reserves, East Asia Forum, February 2015

Research presentations

Xinjiang, ‘Western Apathy’ and the Future of Relations between Kazakhstan and China, interview with Radio Azattyk (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Kazakh service), Prague, December 2020.
• China’s Central Asian Railway Initiatives, Regional Impact, and Effect on EU Trade, interview with News from the Centre, Tehran, December 2020.
Middle Corridor—Policy Development and Trade Potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor: Infrastructure and Trade Webinar, Asian Development Bank Institute & Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Institute, Tokyo, November 2020.
• China’s Perspective on a Smoke-free World, Foundation for a Smoke-Free World, New York, September 2019.
• China’s Trade and Industry Policy in Central Asia, New Silk Road Project, Almaty, Kazakhstan, July 2018
• China’s Belt and Road Policies in Central Asia’, Geopolitics and Empire Podcast, Semey, Kazakhstan, October 2017
• China’s International Capacity Cooperation-What it Is and What it Means for Turkey and West Asia, Embassy of the Swiss Confederation, Ankara, August 2017
• China’s External Trade and Industrial Policy 2012-2017, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, August 2017
• Reiterative Policy Divergence—Formation and Transmission of Institutional Change in Contemporary China, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, February 2017
• International Capacity Cooperation—Financing China’s Export of Industrial Overcapacity, Peking University National School of Development, Beijing, December 2016
• China’s Multilevel Governance Engagement with Global Transport Infrastructure, Dalian Maritime University, December 2016
• Made in China 2025 Project, McKinsey Financial, Toronto, July, 2016
• China’s Industrial Policy Engages World Trade, Queensland State Treasury, Brisbane, June 2016
• China’s Policy Process and Policy Risk, BHP Billiton, Beijing, April 2016
• China Cross-border E-commerce Tax Law, BBC World News live television interview, Singapore, April 2016
• E-commerce Risk and Regulation, Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, Beijing, January 2016
• China Second Quarter Agricultural Policy Update’ Canola Council of Canada, May 2015

• Feeding China—Everyone’s Business, Australia China Business Council, Sydney, December 2015
• China’s Industrial Policy and High-speed Rail Development, University of Sydney, May 2013

Public Lectures

• Australian Commonwealth Constitutional Law, University of Akureyri, Iceland, February 2018
• Concepts in Public Administration Rechstaat, Etat de Droit, and Rule of Law—Evolution and Revolution of Administrative Law in Prussia, France and England, Dalian Maritime University, October 2016
• Multi-level governance—Beyond the European Union and horizontal integration, Dalian Maritime University, October 2016
• History of Political Philosophy—Thomas Hobbes: Secular Moralism, State of Nature and Powers of the Sovereign, Australian National University, July 2015
• History of Political Philosophy—John Locke: Natural Law, Legitimate Rights, Property and the Class State, Australian National University, July 2015